How timely. Just as we were discussing the cost of media buys for all of our House targets this year, the Associated Press has got its hands on a list of 31 races where the DCCC has reserved $35 million worth of advertising time set to begin airing in September and October. Let’s comb through the report and try to identify all the targets:
AK-AL (Young): $586K
AZ-01 (OPEN): $1.7M
AZ-05 (Mitchell): $1.7M
CO-04 (Musgrave): $667K
CT-04 (Shays): $697K
FL-16 (Mahoney): $1.5M
FL-24 (Feeney): $1M
IN-09 (Hill): $1.6M
KS-02 (Boyda): $1.2M
KY-03 (Yarmuth): $659K
LA-06 (Cazayoux): $723K
MI-07 (Walberg): $1.5M
MI-09 (Knollenberg): $1.1M
MN-03 (OPEN): $1.4M
MO-09 (OPEN): $941K
NC-08 (Hayes): $1.6M
NH-01 (Shea-Porter) $564K
NJ-07 (OPEN): $1.8M
NM-01 (OPEN): $1.3M
NM-02 (OPEN): $1.2M
NV-03 (Porter): $916K
NY-13 (OPEN): $1.3M
OH-01 (Chabot): $928K
OH-15 (OPEN): $1.2M
OH-16 (OPEN): $1.3M
OR-05 (OPEN): $1.2M
PA-04 (Altmire): $554K
TX-22 (Lampson): $1.1M
TX-23 (Rodriguez): $707K
VA-11 (OPEN): $1.3M
WI-08 (Kagen): $475K
If you do the math, though, that’s only 29 races. The report also mentions the DCCC booking time for open seat contests in New Jersey and New York, but since there are five of those contests between these two states (NJ-03, NJ-07, NY-13, NY-25, NY-26), we can’t pinpoint the races conclusively. However, since an earlier report identified NY-13 as one of four districts where the DCCC has reserved air time, it’s probably safe to assume that this district is among the 31.
A few caveats: The DCCC is reserving this time well in advance in order to get discounts on ad time, but just because they’ve booked the time, it doesn’t mean that they’ll use it. The committee is free to revise its plans before September.
UPDATE: Reid Wilson has the full list (which includes NJ-07 and NY-13 as the missing links), as well has the size of the buys for each district. I’ve updated our list above accordingly. He also notes that the time booked for the DCCC in NJ-07 and NY-13 are targeted mostly toward cable television.
Key omissions for me outside of NY and NJ are:
IL-11
AL-2
IL-10
WA-4
LA-4
WY-AL
OH-2
MO-6
Looks like they feel secure about Halvorson. Dan Seals is a money machine so might not need the help. Obama homestate coattails also maybe a factor there. No Darcy Burner? Surprised at that.
No Chris Carney in PA-10? The rest I can understand but don’t see Hill, Mitchell, Kagen, Yarmuth, Altmire or Ciro losing. Hardest defense will be Lampson, Mahoney, Boyda and Cazayoux.
WA-8
It may help if we ran some pro anti-Parnell or pro-Don Young ads. I know sounds goofy, but we need Young to win that primary BADLY.
I think the closest race in AZ right now is Lord vs. Shadegg in CD-03. If there’s any race the DCCC might want to pump additional cash into, that should be it. On the other hand, Kirkpatrick in CD-01 can take care of herself against a very right-wing opponent. And I don’t think Harry Mitchell’s in much danger, though if he ends up with Susan Bitter Smith as his opponent he’s going to need all the money he can get.
On the other hand, the D-trip was right to pass on CD-08, where Gabby Giffords is going to wallop Tim Bee.
WI-08, TX-23, Or-05, KY-03, IN-09, PA-04 and KS-02 probably don’t need that help holding. VA-11, OH-16 and AZ-01 don’t need that help to become takeovers. Take those off and add
AL-2
IL-10
WA-8
LA-4
WY-AL
OH-2
MO-6
ID-01
WV-02
CA-04
FL-25
AZ-03
FL-21
VA-02
NY-29
Also I have heard that the DCCC only reserved 250k for MN-03. If that’s true I wonder who’s getting the big bucks?
Adler and Maffei are shoe-ins?
I’m pretty surprised there is so much defense. If I remember correctly, didnt the DCCC tell everyone to raise money like their lives depended on it because this cycle is all about offense? Especially considering the NRCC wont be spending money in pretty much any of these seats since they have a responsbility to defend their incumbents first.
I bet the only seats the NRCC will be spending money in are FL-16, KS-2, KY-3 (maybe), LA-6, NH-1 (maybe), PA-10 and TX-22. And even there, I think those are all going to go our way convincingly except for TX-22, which I expect us to lose.
No shock here. Even though Erickson is badly wounded, this district is close enough and he can self-finance to a large enough extent that they need to cut him off.
After seeing the DCCC make such a huge investment (and seeing a return) in getting Travis Childers into Roger Wicker’s old seat in the special election, I’m sort of shocked to see that they haven’t made retaining that seat in the general a priority.
Baker is a big reason why the DCCC is going to drop money in this race. Before Hulshof retired she was going to be the first well-funded challenger with a base of support that he had seen since he won in 1996. After he retired she ramped up operations and is still out-performing her primary opponents in fundraising and getting out in front of issues.
The DCCC better have a plan to spend money on Darcy Burner’s campaign. Living in Seattle I know that beating Reichert and bringing a Democrat to the Eastside is very doable. We just need a little push.
And since her house burned down last week, it would have been nice to show that the DCCC is on board. Plus, Seattle is an expensive media market so it would be good to book the discounts now. Every cent is going to count in this race.
http://www.darcyburner.com/
If Sekula-Gibbs was the repub nominee. But we aren’t likely to beat a sane republican like Olson. I see Lampson losing somewhere along the lines of 54-46%. But you never jnow, he’s a good fundraiser and could pull a surprise.
They have 50+ million COH and this is only 31+ million.
TX-22 will become a Democratic district. It’s gained a lot of population, a lot of it black and hispanic, since 2000, the “Bush effect” will drop several Republican points from the score, and as exurbia moves further from the boundaries of the district, and suburbia closer, that only seeks to help out Democrats. In ’08, Harris County is having a huge organizational effort to flip all county-wide positions, which seeks to help out in this portion of the district, while Galveston County Democrats are notorious for being the most organized in the state after Travis County dems. Plus, Lampson has already locked up the support of the crucial Space Industry, located in Brazoria county, currently the most unfavorable section of the district.
It’s going to be tough, especially in ’08 and ’10, but in the long-term, this area WILL become Democratic-leaning. and it IS possible to hold this seat.
It’s great to see Missouri 09 on there!
For years we have been ignored by the DCCC, but Judy Baker is really bringing it this year and we’re going to turn MO-09 from red to blue!
http://judybakerforcongress.com/
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
From the republicans. I guess they’ll announce another dozen or so republican seats to defend which should allow them to regain their majority. Amazing since I never knew defending your own seats makes a party able to regain majorities.